YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.2% annual gain in August, up from 3.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.5%, down from 1.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.0% year-over-year gain, no change from the previous month.
Phoenix, Charlotte, and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In August, Phoenix led the way with a 6.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Charlotte with a 4.5% increase and Tampa with a 4.3% increase. Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending August 2019 versus the year ending July 2019.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2% in August. The 10-City and 20-City Composites did not post any gains for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.3% month-over-month increase in August. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.2% decrease. In August, 11 of 20 cities reported increases both before seasonal adjustment while 17 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"The U.S. National Home Price NSA Index trend remained intact with a year-over-year price change of 3.2%," says Philip Murphy, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "However, a shift in regional leadership may be underway beneath the headline national index.
"Phoenix saw an increase in its YOY price change to 6.3% and retained its leading position. However, Las Vegas dropped from number two to number eight among the cities of the 20-City Composite, falling from a 4.7% YOY change in July to only 3.3% in August. Meanwhile, the Southeast region included three of the top four cities. Charlotte, Tampa, and Atlanta all recorded solid YOY performance with price changes of 4.5%, 4.3%, and 4.0%, respectively. In the Northwest, Seattle's YOY change turned positive (0.7%) after three consecutive months of negative YOY price changes. The 10-City Composite YOY price change declined slightly from July to 1.5%, while the 20-City Composite YOY price change remained steady at 2.0%. San Francisco was the only city to record a negative YOY price change (-0.1%)."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
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| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak (%) | Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) |
National | 184.62 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 212.06 | 58.3% | 14.9% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 218.14 | 62.7% | 5.6% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 230.83 | 57.6% | 2.0% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for August 2019. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
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| August 2019 | August/July | July/June | 1-Year |
Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) |
Atlanta | 153.81 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 4.0% |
Boston | 224.74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 3.9% |
Charlotte | 165.40 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 4.5% |
Chicago | 147.01 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.4% |
Cleveland | 127.75 | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.9% |
Dallas | 192.63 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.8% |
Denver | 223.34 | -0.2% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
Detroit | 129.44 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 3.8% |
Las Vegas | 194.37 | -0.2% | 0.6% | 3.3% |
Los Angeles | 286.04 | 0.0% | -0.3% | 1.0% |
Miami | 244.91 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.9% |
Minneapolis | 180.60 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 3.9% |
New York | 201.29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.9% |
Phoenix | 195.76 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 6.3% |
Portland | 241.17 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 2.6% |
San Diego | 263.23 | -0.2% | 0.7% | 2.3% |
San Francisco | 268.81 | -0.5% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
Seattle | 255.35 | -0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
Tampa | 220.58 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 4.3% |
Washington | 234.67 | 0.0% | -0.1% | 2.7% |
Composite-10 | 230.83 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.5% |
Composite-20 | 218.14 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.0% |
U.S. National | 212.06 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.2% |
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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Data through August 2019 |
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Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
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| August/July Change (%) | July/June Change (%) | ||
Metropolitan Area | NSA | SA | NSA | SA |
Atlanta | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Boston | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Charlotte | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
Chicago | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Cleveland | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
Dallas | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Denver | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Detroit | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Las Vegas | -0.2% | -0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
Los Angeles | 0.0% | 0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% |
Miami | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
Minneapolis | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
New York | 0.1% | -0.4% | 0.1% | -0.3% |
Phoenix | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
Portland | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
San Diego | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
San Francisco | -0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Seattle | -0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
Tampa | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
Washington | 0.0% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
Composite-10 | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
Composite-20 | 0.0% | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
U.S. National | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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Data through August 2019 |
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For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit https://www.spdji.com.
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FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Philip Murphy
Managing Director, Global Head of Index Governance
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 1368
philip.murphy@spglobal.com
April Kabahar
Global Head of Communications
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 7530
april.kabahar@spglobal.com
S&P Dow Jones Indices' interactive blog, IndexologyBlog.com, delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts across S&P Global on a wide-range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at https://www.indexologyblog.com, where feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.
Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products.
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