YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 15.8% annual gain in July, down from 18.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 14.9%, down from 17.4% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 16.1% year-over-year gain, down from 18.7% in the previous month.
Tampa, Miami, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in July. Tampa led the way with a 31.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami in second with a 31.7% increase, and Dallas in third with a 24.7% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending July 2022 versus the year ending June 2022.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.3% month-over-month decrease in July, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.8%.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.2%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.5% and -0.4%, respectively.
In July, only 7 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.
ANALYSIS
"Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July's report reflects a forceful deceleration," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "For example, while the National Composite Index rose by 15.8% in the 12 months ended July 2022, its year-over-year price rise in June was 18.1%. The -2.3% difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index. We saw similar patterns in our 10-City Composite (up 14.9% in July vs. 17.4% in June) and our 20-City Composite (up 16.1% in July vs. 18.7% in June). On a month-over-month basis, all three composites declined in July.
"The theme of strong but decelerating prices was reflected across all 20 cities. July's year-over-year price change was positive for each one of the 20 cities, with a median gain of 15.0%, but in every case July's gain was less than June's. Prices declined in 12 cities on a month-to-month basis. Tampa (+31.8%) narrowly edged Miami (+31.7%) to remain at the top of the league table for the fifth consecutive month, with Dallas (+24.7%) holding on to third place. As has been the case for the last several months, price growth was strongest in the Southeast (+27.5%) and South (+26.9%).
"As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates upward, mortgage financing has become more expensive, a process that continues to this day. Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
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| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index |
Level |
Date |
Level |
Date | From Peak (%) |
Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) |
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4 % | 307.45 | 129.4 % | 66.5 % |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1 % | 316.28 | 135.9 % | 53.1 % |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3 % | 327.54 | 123.7 % | 44.7 % |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for July 2022. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
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| July 2022 | July/June | June/May | 1-Year | ||||
Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) | ||||
Atlanta | 234.27 | 0.6 % | 1.3 % | 22.8 % | ||||
Boston | 315.06 | -0.3 % | 0.6 % | 13.3 % | ||||
Charlotte | 261.48 | 0.6 % | 1.8 % | 23.6 % | ||||
Chicago | 188.96 | 0.7 % | 1.7 % | 12.7 % | ||||
Cleveland | 175.82 | 1.0 % | 1.2 % | 12.4 % | ||||
Dallas | 306.54 | -0.4 % | 1.0 % | 24.7 % | ||||
Denver | 327.39 | -1.4 % | -0.1 % | 15.6 % | ||||
Detroit | 174.06 | -0.1 % | 0.7 % | 11.4 % | ||||
Las Vegas | 300.14 | 0.0 % | 1.5 % | 21.8 % | ||||
Los Angeles | 414.80 | -1.6 % | -0.4 % | 15.7 % | ||||
Miami | 409.57 | 1.3 % | 2.3 % | 31.7 % | ||||
Minneapolis | 236.24 | -0.2 % | 0.7 % | 9.0 % | ||||
New York | 276.78 | 0.2 % | 1.1 % | 13.7 % | ||||
Phoenix | 343.18 | -0.1 % | 1.0 % | 22.4 % | ||||
Portland | 338.16 | -1.1 % | -0.1 % | 11.7 % | ||||
San Diego | 414.32 | -2.5 % | -0.7 % | 16.6 % | ||||
San Francisco | 375.19 | -3.5 % | -1.3 % | 10.8 % | ||||
Seattle | 393.76 | -3.1 % | -1.9 % | 14.5 % | ||||
Tampa | 381.85 | 0.6 % | 2.1 % | 31.8 % | ||||
Washington | 308.32 | -0.7 % | 0.0 % | 9.4 % | ||||
Composite-10 | 327.54 | -0.8 % | 0.4 % | 14.9 % | ||||
Composite-20 | 316.28 | -0.8 % | 0.4 % | 16.1 % | ||||
U.S. National | 307.45 | -0.3 % | 0.6 % | 15.8 % | ||||
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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Data through July 2022 |
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Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
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| July/June Change (%) | June/May Change (%) | ||||||
Metropolitan Area | NSA | SA | NSA | SA | ||||
Atlanta | 0.6 % | 0.6 % | 1.3 % | 1.1 % | ||||
Boston | -0.3 % | -0.1 % | 0.6 % | 0.4 % | ||||
Charlotte | 0.6 % | 0.8 % | 1.8 % | 1.5 % | ||||
Chicago | 0.7 % | 0.7 % | 1.7 % | 1.1 % | ||||
Cleveland | 1.0 % | 0.3 % | 1.2 % | 0.8 % | ||||
Dallas | -0.4 % | -0.2 % | 1.0 % | 0.6 % | ||||
Denver | -1.4 % | -1.0 % | -0.1 % | -0.3 % | ||||
Detroit | -0.1 % | -0.3 % | 0.7 % | -0.1 % | ||||
Las Vegas | 0.0 % | 0.2 % | 1.5 % | 1.1 % | ||||
Los Angeles | -1.6 % | -1.2 % | -0.4 % | -0.6 % | ||||
Miami | 1.3 % | 1.4 % | 2.3 % | 2.2 % | ||||
Minneapolis | -0.2 % | -0.2 % | 0.7 % | 0.2 % | ||||
New York | 0.2 % | 0.0 % | 1.1 % | 1.4 % | ||||
Phoenix | -0.1 % | -0.1 % | 1.0 % | 0.7 % | ||||
Portland | -1.1 % | -1.3 % | -0.1 % | -0.5 % | ||||
San Diego | -2.5 % | -2.0 % | -0.7 % | -0.9 % | ||||
San Francisco | -3.5 % | -3.6 % | -1.3 % | -1.1 % | ||||
Seattle | -3.1 % | -2.5 % | -1.9 % | -1.7 % | ||||
Tampa | 0.6 % | 0.5 % | 2.1 % | 2.2 % | ||||
Washington | -0.7 % | -0.4 % | 0.0 % | -0.2 % | ||||
Composite-10 | -0.8 % | -0.5 % | 0.4 % | 0.2 % | ||||
Composite-20 | -0.8 % | -0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.2 % | ||||
U.S. National | -0.3 % | -0.2 % | 0.6 % | 0.2 % | ||||
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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Data through July 2022 |
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.
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