YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported 0.0% annual change in June, up from a loss of -0.4% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed a decrease of -0.5%, which is an improvement on the -1.1% decrease in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year loss of -1.2%, up from -1.7% in the previous month.
Chicago, Cleveland, and New York again led the way reporting the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in June. Chicago remained in the top spot with a 4.2% year-over-year price increase, with Cleveland in at number two with a 4.1% increase, and New York held down the third spot with a 3.4% increase. There again was an even split of 10 cities reporting lower prices and those reporting higher prices in the year ending June 2023 versus the year ending May 2023; 13 cities showed price acceleration relative to the previous month.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in June, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites also posted like increases of 0.9%.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.7%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.9%.
ANALYSIS
"U.S. home prices continued to increase in June 2023," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "Our National Composite rose by 0.9% in June, and it now stands only -0.02% below its all-time peak from exactly one year ago. Our 10- and 20-City Composites likewise each gained 0.9% in June 2023, and stand -0.5% and -1.2%, respectively, below their June 2022 peaks.
"As we've noted previously, the recovery in home prices is broadly based. Prices rose in all 20 cities in June, both before and after seasonal adjustment. Over the last 12 months, 10 cities show positive returns. Otherwise said, half the cities in our sample now sit at all-time high prices.
"Regional differences continue to be striking. On a year-over-year basis, June's three best-performing cities were Chicago (+4.2%), Cleveland (+4.1%), and New York (+3.4%) – the same three that had topped our May leader board. At the other end of the scale, the worst performers continue to be in the Pacific and Mountain time zones, with San Francisco (-9.7%) and Seattle (-8.8%) at the bottom. The Midwest (+2.8%) continues as the nation's strongest region, followed this month by the Northeast (+1.6%). The West (-5.9%) remains the weakest region.
"June is the fifth consecutive month in which home prices have increased across the U.S. With 2023 half over, the National Composite has risen 4.7%, which is slightly above the median full calendar year increase in more than 35 years of data. We recognize that the market's gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness, but the breadth and strength of this month's report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results."
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
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| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | ||||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak (%) | Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) | |
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4 % | 308.25 | 130.0 % | 67.0 % | |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1 % | 314.86 | 134.8 % | 52.5 % | |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3 % | 328.63 | 124.4 % | 45.2 % | |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for June 2023. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
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| June 2023 | June/May | May/April | 1-Year | |||
Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) | |||
Atlanta | 237.65 | 1.3 % | 0.9 % | 2.1 % | |||
Boston | 318.68 | 1.3 % | 1.2 % | 0.9 % | |||
Charlotte | 264.36 | 1.2 % | 1.1 % | 1.7 % | |||
Chicago | 195.53 | 1.4 % | 2.3 % | 4.2 % | |||
Cleveland | 181.54 | 1.5 % | 2.7 % | 4.1 % | |||
Dallas | 295.24 | 0.7 % | 1.6 % | -4.1 % | |||
Denver | 317.49 | 0.4 % | 0.7 % | -4.4 % | |||
Detroit | 177.96 | 1.1 % | 2.2 % | 2.2 % | |||
Las Vegas | 275.30 | 0.9 % | 0.9 % | -8.2 % | |||
Los Angeles | 413.46 | 0.9 % | 1.2 % | -1.8 % | |||
Miami | 414.08 | 1.4 % | 1.2 % | 2.5 % | |||
Minneapolis | 238.14 | 1.0 % | 1.6 % | 0.7 % | |||
New York | 285.75 | 1.1 % | 1.8 % | 3.4 % | |||
Phoenix | 317.63 | 1.1 % | 0.8 % | -7.5 % | |||
Portland | 327.53 | 0.8 % | 1.0 % | -4.2 % | |||
San Diego | 414.24 | 1.1 % | 1.9 % | -2.5 % | |||
San Francisco | 350.75 | 0.1 % | 1.0 % | -9.7 % | |||
Seattle | 370.48 | 0.8 % | 1.9 % | -8.8 % | |||
Tampa | 376.65 | 0.5 % | 1.0 % | -0.9 % | |||
Washington | 312.45 | 0.7 % | 1.5 % | 0.6 % | |||
Composite-10 | 328.63 | 0.9 % | 1.5 % | -0.5 % | |||
Composite-20 | 314.86 | 0.9 % | 1.5 % | -1.2 % | |||
U.S. National | 308.25 | 0.9 % | 1.3 % | 0.0 % | |||
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic | |||||||
Data through June 2023 |
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Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
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| June/May Change (%) | May/April Change (%) | |||||
Metropolitan Area | NSA | SA | NSA | SA | |||
Atlanta | 1.3 % | 0.8 % | 0.9 % | 0.4 % | |||
Boston | 1.3 % | 1.1 % | 1.2 % | 0.9 % | |||
Charlotte | 1.2 % | 0.7 % | 1.1 % | 0.6 % | |||
Chicago | 1.4 % | 0.7 % | 2.3 % | 1.4 % | |||
Cleveland | 1.5 % | 0.9 % | 2.7 % | 1.7 % | |||
Dallas | 0.7 % | 0.4 % | 1.6 % | 0.8 % | |||
Denver | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.7 % | 0.4 % | |||
Detroit | 1.1 % | 0.4 % | 2.2 % | 1.6 % | |||
Las Vegas | 0.9 % | 0.3 % | 0.9 % | 0.2 % | |||
Los Angeles | 0.9 % | 0.8 % | 1.2 % | 1.0 % | |||
Miami | 1.4 % | 0.8 % | 1.2 % | 0.8 % | |||
Minneapolis | 1.0 % | 0.5 % | 1.6 % | 0.7 % | |||
New York | 1.1 % | 1.3 % | 1.8 % | 1.6 % | |||
Phoenix | 1.1 % | 0.5 % | 0.8 % | 0.0 % | |||
Portland | 0.8 % | 0.5 % | 1.0 % | 0.4 % | |||
San Diego | 1.1 % | 1.5 % | 1.9 % | 1.5 % | |||
San Francisco | 0.1 % | 0.9 % | 1.0 % | 0.8 % | |||
Seattle | 0.8 % | 1.4 % | 1.9 % | 1.2 % | |||
Tampa | 0.5 % | 0.4 % | 1.0 % | 0.6 % | |||
Washington | 0.7 % | 0.6 % | 1.5 % | 1.1 % | |||
Composite-10 | 0.9 % | 0.9 % | 1.5 % | 1.1 % | |||
Composite-20 | 0.9 % | 0.9 % | 1.5 % | 1.0 % | |||
U.S. National | 0.9 % | 0.7 % | 1.3 % | 0.8 % | |||
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic | |||||||
Data through June 2023 |
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.
Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products.
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