YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in November, up from a 4.7% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 6.2%, up from a 5.7% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.4%, up from a 4.9% increase in the previous month. Once again, Detroit reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.2% increase in November, followed again by San Diego with an 8% increase. For the third month in a row, Portland fell 0.7% and remained the only city reporting lower prices in November versus a year ago.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
For the first time since January 2023, the U.S. National Index and 20-City Composite posted 0.2% month-over-month decreases in November, while the 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and the 10-City Composite posted month-over-month increases of 0.2%, while the 20-City Composite posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1%.
ANALYSIS
"U.S. home prices edged downward from their all-time high in November," says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P DJI. "The streak of nine monthly gains ended in November, setting the index back to levels last seen over the summer months. Seattle and San Francisco reported the largest monthly declines, falling 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively."
"November's year-over-year gain saw the largest growth in U.S. home prices in 2023, with our National Composite rising 5.1% and the 10-city index rising 6.2%. Detroit held its position as the best performing market for the third month in a row, accelerating to an 8.2% gain. San Diego notched an 8% annual gain, retaining its second spot in the nation. Barring a late surge from another market, those cities will vie for the 'housing market of the year' as the best performing city in our composite."
"Six cities registered a new all-time high in November (Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, New York, and Cleveland). Portland remains the lone market in annual decline. The Northeast and Midwest recorded the largest gains with returns of 6.4% and 6.3%, respectively. Other regions are not far behind with the slowest gains in the West of 3%. This month's report revealed the narrowest spread of performance across the nation since the first quarter of 2021."
"The tight disparity speaks to a rising tide across the country, with less evidence of micro-markets bucking the trend. The days of markets in the South rising double digits with markets in the Midwest remaining flat are over. The house price decline came at a time where mortgage rates peaked, with the average Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage nearing 8%, according to Federal Reserve data. The rate has since fallen over 1%, which could support further annual gains in home prices."
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | ||||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak
| Level | From Trough
| From Peak
| |
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4 % | 312.15 | 132.9 % | 69.1 % | |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1 % | 318.24 | 137.4 % | 54.1 % | |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3 % | 333.31 | 127.6 % | 47.3 % | |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for November 2023. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
|
| November 2023 | November/October | October/September | 1-Year |
Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) |
Atlanta | 241.91 | 0.0 % | 0.2 % | 5.9 % |
Boston | 322.73 | -0.2 % | 0.3 % | 7.1 % |
Charlotte | 271.05 | 0.2 % | 0.3 % | 7.0 % |
Chicago | 197.67 | -0.4 % | 0.3 % | 7.0 % |
Cleveland | 184.16 | 0.3 % | 0.2 % | 7.4 % |
Dallas | 292.41 | -0.6 % | -0.3 % | 1.7 % |
Denver | 311.96 | -0.9 % | -0.6 % | 1.5 % |
Detroit | 181.87 | -0.4 % | 0.4 % | 8.2 % |
Las Vegas | 284.64 | 0.2 % | 0.3 % | 2.1 % |
Los Angeles | 420.57 | 0.1 % | 0.4 % | 7.2 % |
Miami | 428.20 | 0.3 % | 0.6 % | 7.2 % |
Minneapolis | 234.35 | -0.8 % | -0.3 % | 2.7 % |
New York | 294.23 | 0.3 % | 0.4 % | 7.4 % |
Phoenix | 324.91 | -0.3 % | 0.6 % | 2.5 % |
Portland | 319.06 | -1.0 % | -0.9 % | -0.7 % |
San Diego | 416.36 | -0.5 % | -0.1 % | 8.0 % |
San Francisco | 343.59 | -1.3 % | -0.6 % | 2.0 % |
Seattle | 363.85 | -1.4 % | -0.5 % | 1.6 % |
Tampa | 383.22 | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 3.4 % |
Washington | 312.50 | -0.3 % | -0.3 % | 4.7 % |
Composite-10 | 333.31 | -0.1 % | 0.2 % | 6.2 % |
Composite-20 | 318.24 | -0.2 % | 0.1 % | 5.4 % |
U.S. National | 312.15 | -0.2 % | 0.1 % | 5.1 % |
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic | ||||
Data through November 2023 | ||||
Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
|
| November/October Change (%) | October/September Change (%) | ||
Metropolitan Area | NSA | SA | NSA | SA |
Atlanta | 0.0 % | 0.4 % | 0.2 % | 0.6 % |
Boston | -0.2 % | 0.1 % | 0.3 % | 1.0 % |
Charlotte | 0.2 % | 0.7 % | 0.3 % | 0.7 % |
Chicago | -0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | 0.7 % |
Cleveland | 0.3 % | 0.9 % | 0.2 % | 0.7 % |
Dallas | -0.6 % | 0.1 % | -0.3 % | 0.3 % |
Denver | -0.9 % | -0.5 % | -0.6 % | 0.4 % |
Detroit | -0.4 % | 0.2 % | 0.4 % | 1.2 % |
Las Vegas | 0.2 % | 1.0 % | 0.3 % | 1.0 % |
Los Angeles | 0.1 % | 0.5 % | 0.4 % | 0.7 % |
Miami | 0.3 % | 0.7 % | 0.6 % | 0.9 % |
Minneapolis | -0.8 % | 0.0 % | -0.3 % | 0.1 % |
New York | 0.3 % | 0.2 % | 0.4 % | 0.3 % |
Phoenix | -0.3 % | 0.6 % | 0.6 % | 1.1 % |
Portland | -1.0 % | -0.2 % | -0.9 % | -0.1 % |
San Diego | -0.5 % | 0.2 % | -0.1 % | 0.6 % |
San Francisco | -1.3 % | -0.8 % | -0.6 % | 0.6 % |
Seattle | -1.4 % | -0.8 % | -0.5 % | 0.5 % |
Tampa | 0.1 % | 0.5 % | 0.0 % | 0.4 % |
Washington | -0.3 % | 0.0 % | -0.3 % | 0.3 % |
Composite-10 | -0.1 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.6 % |
Composite-20 | -0.2 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.6 % |
U.S. National | -0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.1 % | 0.6 % |
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic | ||||
Data through November 2023 | ||||
For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.
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