Financial Guidance
We are providing our initial 2024 fourth quarter financial guidance and affirming our full year 2024 guidance today, which ranges include our current forecasted business mix assumptions and expected contract execution and delivery schedules. Our financial guidance also includes our expectations and assumptions for our supply chain’s execution, and for employee sourcing, hiring, retention and related costs. We have also taken into consideration in our affirmed fiscal 2024 guidance the Federal Fiscal Year 2025 Continuing Resolution Authorization (CRA) which began on October 1, 2024, and under such expected CRA, no new program or contract awards, no increases in existing production contract funding, and no transition from program development to production are expected.
Our fourth quarter and full year 2024 guidance ranges are as follows:
Current Guidance Range | ||
$M | Q424 | FY24 |
Revenues | $270 - $295 | $1,125 - $1,150 |
R&D | $10 - $11 | $40 - $42 |
Operating Income | $3 - $7 | $30 - $35 |
Depreciation | $8 - $9 | $31 - $33 |
Amortization | $2 - $3 | $8 - $10 |
Stock Based Compensation | $6 - $7 | $29 - $30 |
Adjusted EBITDA | $21 - $26 | $102 - $107 |
Operating Cash Flow | $40 - $50 | |
Capital Expenditures | $60 - $70 | |
Free Cash Flow Use | ($10 - $30) | |
For Kratos’ Fiscal year 2025, we are currently forecasting base case Revenue growth of approximately 10%, and Adjusted EBITDA growth. Our industry is currently operating under a Federal Fiscal Year 2025 CRA, which began October 1, 2024 and which is currently expected to continue into Kratos’ Fiscal 2025. There was also an approximate 6-month Federal Fiscal 2024 CRA, which was previously resolved in March 2024, Kratos’ current 2024 fiscal year. Additionally, the recent election will impact the Administration, House and Senate. Accordingly, we will be providing our detailed 2025 Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, Cash Flow and other financial forecast information and guidance when we report our Fiscal 2024 results, currently expected to be in late February 2025. This will provide Kratos additional time to assess the impacts of these ongoing and recent events, if any, on National Security priorities, our 2025 business mix, contractual and program funding and timing assumptions and potential fiscal year 2025 fiscal quarter to quarter impacts. Kratos’ base case financial forecast does not assume or include any potential tactical drone program production.
Management will discuss the Company’s financial results, on a conference call beginning at 2:00 p.m. Pacific (5:00 p.m. Eastern) today. The call will be available at www.kratosdefense.com. Participants may register for the call using this Online Form. Upon registration, all telephone participants will receive the dial-in number along with a unique PIN that can be used to access the call. For those who cannot access the live broadcast, a replay will be available on Kratos’ website.
About Kratos Defense & Security Solutions
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: KTOS) is a technology, products, system and software company addressing the defense, national security, and commercial markets. Kratos makes true internally funded research, development, capital and other investments, to rapidly develop, produce and field solutions that address our customers’ mission critical needs and requirements. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we seek to utilize proven, leading edge approaches and technology, not unproven bleeding edge approaches or technology, with Kratos’ approach designed to reduce cost, schedule and risk, enabling us to be first to market with cost effective solutions. We believe that Kratos is known as an innovative disruptive change agent in the industry, a company that is an expert in designing products and systems up front for successful rapid, large quantity, low cost future manufacturing which is a value add competitive differentiator for our large traditional prime system integrator partners and also to our government and commercial customers. Kratos intends to pursue program and contract opportunities as the prime or lead contractor when we believe that our probability of win (PWin) is high and any investment required by Kratos is within our capital resource comfort level. We intend to partner and team with a large, traditional system integrator when our assessment of PWin is greater or required investment is beyond Kratos’ comfort level. Kratos’ primary business areas include virtualized ground systems for satellites and space vehicles including software for command & control (C2) and telemetry, tracking and control (TT&C), jet powered unmanned aerial drone systems, hypersonic vehicles and rocket systems, propulsion systems for drones, missiles, loitering munitions, supersonic systems, space craft and launch systems, C5ISR and microwave electronic products for missile, radar, missile defense, space, satellite, counter UAS, directed energy, communication and other systems, and virtual & augmented reality training systems for the warfighter. For more information, visit www.KratosDefense.com
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